The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Pro football picks for the 2014 NFL season, week 6

9 correct picks | 5 incorrect picks | 1 ties

A brutal week

With the arrival of week 6 of the 2014 NFL season, the system picked a lot of road teams. This was bound to create trouble (NFL road teams only win ~42% of their games), and it did. While the pick numbers were still positive, it's hard to nail a lot of road favorites (NFL home team underdogs are one of the better general picks in all of sports betting). On top of that, the DAL win at SEA coupled with a previous win in NO appears to have exposed at least one flaw in the system. The Cowboys are flat-out outperforming the model. It will be interesting to see if they regress, if the model adapts to their success or if these two big wins are just outliers.

Home teams had a disturbingly rough week, but that's not going to hold up over the course of a full NFL season. This was a week that looked weird from the go, although it can't be said that it lacked for entertainment value. Unless you were a Bucs fan.

Game and Date Pick Winner Good? Return of $100
IND (-150) at HOU (125)
Thursday, October 9, 2014
IND IND + $166.66
CHI (150) at ATL (-160)
Sunday, October 12, 2014
ATL CHI - $0
NE (-128) at BUF (118)
Sunday, October 12, 2014
NE NE + $178.12
CAR (260) at CIN (-290)
Sunday, October 12, 2014
CIN TIE + $100
PIT (108) at CLE (-128)
Sunday, October 12, 2014
PIT CLE - $0
GB (-140) at MIA (130)
Sunday, October 12, 2014
GB GB + $171.42
DET (117) at MIN (-127)
Sunday, October 12, 2014
MIN DET - $0
DEN (-440) at NYJ (360)
Sunday, October 12, 2014
DEN DEN + $122.72
BAL (-175) at TB (155)
Sunday, October 12, 2014
BAL BAL + $157.14
JAC (185) at TEN (-200)
Sunday, October 12, 2014
TEN TEN + $150
SD (-290) at OAK (260)
Sunday, October 12, 2014
SD SD + $134.48
WAS (160) at ARI (-170)
Sunday, October 12, 2014
ARI ARI + $158.82
DAL (310) at SEA (-370)
Sunday, October 12, 2014
SEA DAL - $0
NYG (120) at PHI (-140)
Sunday, October 12, 2014
NYG PHI - $0
SF (-168) at STL (155)
Monday, October 13, 2014
SF SF + $159.52

Hypothetical results against moneyline

Total payout: $1498.88
Total cost: $1500