The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Saint Louis Rams @ San Fransisco 49ers

Game will take place Sunday, January 3, 2016

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

STL PlaysSF Plays STL WsSF Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 04.23
Badly Ahead and Well 01.66
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 2.020
Above Avg Behind and Awful 0.920
Ahead and Well Below Avg 1.480
Behind and Awful Below Avg 00.48
Average Below Avg 0.754.35
Above Avg Below Avg 0.390
Behind and Awful Above Avg 00.84
Average Above Avg 0.910.49
Behind and Awful Well 01.41
Badly Well 03.03
Behind but Well Well 0.80
7.3116.52

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

STL PlaysSF Plays STL WsSF Ws
Group 2 Group 5 0.882.78
Group 0 Group 5 0.610.83
Group 3 Group 4 1.430
Group 0 Group 4 0.520
Group 4 Group 3 01.8
Group 2 Group 2 00.76
Group 2 Group 1 00.28
Group 1 Group 1 0.32.48
Group 0 Group 0 0.370
4.148.95

Head-to-Head History of STL @ SF

Day Outcome STL Played SF Played
Sunday, November 2, 2014 3 pt W STL Average Above Avg
Sunday, December 1, 2013 10 pt W SF Badly Well
Sunday, November 11, 2012 TIE Average Below Avg
Sunday, December 4, 2011 26 pt W SF Behind and Awful Ahead and Well
Sunday, November 14, 2010 3 pt W SF Average Below Avg
Sunday, October 4, 2009 35 pt W SF Behind and Awful Above Avg