The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos

Game will take place Sunday, January 3, 2016

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

SD PlaysDEN Plays SD WsDEN Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 03.87
Badly Ahead and Well 01.08
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 3.810
Above Avg Behind and Awful 1.421.02
Ahead and Well Below Avg 1.120
Average Below Avg 11.95
Above Avg Below Avg 1.591.48
Average Above Avg 0.580
Behind and Awful Well 01.72
Average Well 00.64
Badly Well 02.44
9.5514.24

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

SD PlaysDEN Plays SD WsDEN Ws
Group 5 Group 5 0.170
Group 2 Group 5 0.761.67
Group 0 Group 5 0.820.46
Group 5 Group 4 0.110
Group 3 Group 4 1.440
Group 0 Group 4 0.010
Group 4 Group 3 01.94
Group 2 Group 2 00.62
Group 4 Group 1 00.83
Group 2 Group 1 0.530.71
Group 1 Group 1 0.572.41
Group 0 Group 0 1.321.36
5.7810.02

Head-to-Head History of SD @ DEN

Day Outcome SD Played DEN Played
Thursday, October 23, 2014 14 pt W DEN Behind and Awful Well
Thursday, December 12, 2013 7 pt W SD Ahead and Well Below Avg
Sunday, November 18, 2012 7 pt W DEN Average Below Avg
Sunday, October 9, 2011 5 pt W SD Ahead and Well Below Avg
Sunday, January 2, 2011 5 pt W SD Above Avg Below Avg
Sunday, November 22, 2009 29 pt W SD Ahead and Well Behind and Awful