The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers

Game will take place Sunday, January 3, 2016

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

TB PlaysCAR Plays TB WsCAR Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 03.68
Badly Ahead and Well 00.76
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 3.920
Above Avg Behind and Awful 00
Ahead and Well Below Avg 0.470
Average Below Avg 2.053.38
Above Avg Below Avg 0.870.54
Behind but Well Below Avg 0.730
Behind and Awful Above Avg 01.14
Average Above Avg 0.560
Behind and Awful Well 00.88
Average Well 00.7
Badly Well 03.57
8.6214.68

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

TB PlaysCAR Plays TB WsCAR Ws
Group 2 Group 5 0.572.08
Group 1 Group 5 00.45
Group 0 Group 5 0.940.52
Group 5 Group 4 0.680
Group 3 Group 4 0.590
Group 0 Group 4 00
Group 1 Group 3 00.52
Group 4 Group 3 01.5
Group 2 Group 2 01.12
Group 2 Group 1 00.47
Group 1 Group 1 0.052.86
Group 0 Group 0 1.340.73
4.1910.29

Head-to-Head History of TB @ CAR

Day Outcome TB Played CAR Played
Sunday, December 14, 2014 2 pt W CAR Average Below Avg
Sunday, December 1, 2013 21 pt W CAR Behind and Awful Ahead and Well
Sunday, November 18, 2012 6 pt W TB Behind but Well Below Avg
Saturday, December 24, 2011 32 pt W CAR Behind and Awful Ahead and Well
Sunday, September 19, 2010 13 pt W TB Ahead and Well Behind and Awful
Sunday, December 6, 2009 10 pt W CAR Badly Well