The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons

Game will take place Sunday, January 3, 2016

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

NO PlaysATL Plays NO WsATL Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 03.14
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 2.70
Above Avg Behind and Awful 2.332.09
Behind and Awful Below Avg 00.44
Average Below Avg 3.033.13
Above Avg Below Avg 1.550
Badly Below Avg 00.93
Average Above Avg 00.46
Behind and Awful Well 00.39
Badly Well 03.05
Behind but Well Well 0.790
10.4113.66

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

NO PlaysATL Plays NO WsATL Ws
Group 2 Group 5 0.250.91
Group 1 Group 5 00.26
Group 0 Group 5 1.070.83
Group 3 Group 4 1.380
Group 4 Group 3 02.73
Group 1 Group 2 0.290.38
Group 2 Group 1 00
Group 1 Group 1 01.42
Group 0 Group 0 1.180.71
4.197.27

Head-to-Head History of NO @ ATL

Day Outcome NO Played ATL Played
Sunday, September 7, 2014 3 pt W ATL Above Avg Behind and Awful
Thursday, November 21, 2013 4 pt W NO Average Below Avg
Thursday, November 29, 2012 10 pt W ATL Badly Well
Sunday, November 13, 2011 3 pt W NO Average Below Avg
Monday, December 27, 2010 3 pt W NO Above Avg Below Avg
Sunday, December 13, 2009 3 pt W NO Above Avg Below Avg