The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers

Game will take place Sunday, January 3, 2016

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

MIN PlaysGB Plays MIN WsGB Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 04.59
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 2.420
Behind and Awful Below Avg 00.96
Average Below Avg 2.753.91
Badly Below Avg 00.65
Average Above Avg 00.7
Behind and Awful Well 00.67
Badly Well 04.93
5.1716.44

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

MIN PlaysGB Plays MIN WsGB Ws
Group 2 Group 5 0.132.05
Group 0 Group 5 1.171.15
Group 0 Group 4 0.010
Group 4 Group 3 03.12
Group 2 Group 2 00.22
Group 4 Group 1 00.58
Group 1 Group 1 02.64
Group 3 Group 0 0.630
Group 0 Group 0 0.960.33
2.9210.13

Head-to-Head History of MIN @ GB

Day Outcome MIN Played GB Played
Thursday, October 2, 2014 32 pt W GB Behind and Awful Ahead and Well
Sunday, November 24, 2013 TIE Average Below Avg
Sunday, December 2, 2012 9 pt W GB Average Below Avg
Monday, November 14, 2011 38 pt W GB Behind and Awful Ahead and Well
Sunday, October 24, 2010 4 pt W GB Average Below Avg
Sunday, November 1, 2009 12 pt W MIN Ahead and Well Behind and Awful