The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears

Game will take place Sunday, January 3, 2016

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

DET PlaysCHI Plays DET WsCHI Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 01.97
Badly Ahead and Well 01.25
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 2.010
Average Behind and Awful 0.790.53
Above Avg Behind and Awful 00
Ahead and Well Below Avg 1.570.2
Average Below Avg 3.452.65
Above Avg Below Avg 1.340.31
Behind and Awful Above Avg 00.76
Badly Above Avg 00.4
Behind and Awful Well 00.77
Average Well 00.87
Badly Well 0.283.65
Behind but Well Well 1.390.85
10.8414.25

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

DET PlaysCHI Plays DET WsCHI Ws
Group 4 Group 5 00.47
Group 2 Group 5 0.421.4
Group 0 Group 5 1.970.35
Group 3 Group 4 0.990
Group 4 Group 3 01.02
Group 2 Group 2 0.10.32
Group 4 Group 2 00.62
Group 2 Group 1 0.650.29
Group 1 Group 1 02.46
Group 0 Group 0 1.050.28
5.227.26

Head-to-Head History of DET @ CHI

Day Outcome DET Played CHI Played
Sunday, December 21, 2014 6 pt W DET Average Behind and Awful
Sunday, November 10, 2013 2 pt W DET Above Avg Below Avg
Monday, October 22, 2012 6 pt W CHI Badly Well
Sunday, November 13, 2011 24 pt W CHI Badly Ahead and Well
Sunday, September 12, 2010 5 pt W CHI Average Behind and Awful
Sunday, October 4, 2009 24 pt W CHI Behind and Awful Ahead and Well