The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys

Game will take place Sunday, January 3, 2016

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

WAS PlaysDAL Plays WAS WsDAL Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 05.03
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 3.210
Average Behind and Awful 00
Above Avg Behind and Awful 0.770.46
Ahead and Well Below Avg 0.650
Average Below Avg 2.632.95
Above Avg Below Avg 0.30.49
Behind and Awful Above Avg 00.69
Badly Well 01.69
7.5911.34

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

WAS PlaysDAL Plays WAS WsDAL Ws
Group 2 Group 5 0.271.37
Group 1 Group 5 00.61
Group 0 Group 5 0.730.43
Group 5 Group 4 0.880
Group 3 Group 4 1.380
Group 4 Group 3 02.79
Group 5 Group 2 00
Group 2 Group 2 0.120.55
Group 0 Group 2 0.510
Group 1 Group 1 01.38
Group 0 Group 0 0.011.27
3.928.43

Head-to-Head History of WAS @ DAL

Day Outcome WAS Played DAL Played
Monday, October 27, 2014 3 pt W WAS Average Below Avg
Sunday, October 13, 2013 15 pt W DAL Badly Well
Thursday, November 22, 2012 7 pt W WAS Above Avg Behind and Awful
Monday, September 26, 2011 2 pt W DAL Average Below Avg
Sunday, December 19, 2010 3 pt W DAL Badly Well
Sunday, November 22, 2009 1 pt W DAL Above Avg Below Avg