The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs

Game will take place Sunday, January 3, 2016

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

OAK PlaysKC Plays OAK WsKC Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 04.26
Badly Ahead and Well 01.04
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 2.670
Above Avg Behind and Awful 2.60
Ahead and Well Below Avg 1.080
Average Below Avg 0.822.34
Above Avg Below Avg 0.550.8
Behind but Well Below Avg 0.640
Average Above Avg 00.72
Badly Above Avg 00.56
Average Well 01.01
Badly Well 02.46
8.3813.22

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

OAK PlaysKC Plays OAK WsKC Ws
Group 2 Group 5 0.131.61
Group 1 Group 5 0.010.67
Group 0 Group 5 1.461.46
Group 5 Group 4 0.320
Group 3 Group 4 0.680
Group 4 Group 3 02.73
Group 2 Group 2 00.87
Group 2 Group 1 00.31
Group 1 Group 1 01.58
Group 0 Group 0 1.710.01
4.339.26

Head-to-Head History of OAK @ KC

Day Outcome OAK Played KC Played
Sunday, December 14, 2014 18 pt W KC Badly Ahead and Well
Sunday, October 13, 2013 17 pt W KC Average Above Avg
Sunday, October 28, 2012 10 pt W OAK Ahead and Well Behind and Awful
Saturday, December 24, 2011 3 pt W OAK Ahead and Well Below Avg
Sunday, January 2, 2011 21 pt W OAK Above Avg Behind and Awful
Sunday, September 20, 2009 3 pt W OAK Average Below Avg