The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts

Game will take place Sunday, January 3, 2016

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

TEN PlaysIND Plays TEN WsIND Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 04.67
Badly Ahead and Well 00.61
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 2.70
Ahead and Well Below Avg 0.580
Average Below Avg 2.022.98
Above Avg Below Avg 0.950.52
Badly Below Avg 00.47
Behind but Well Below Avg 0.440.44
Behind and Awful Above Avg 00.6
Average Above Avg 0.221.04
Badly Above Avg 00.94
Behind and Awful Well 01.11
Badly Well 02.58
Behind but Well Well 0.90
7.8316

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

TEN PlaysIND Plays TEN WsIND Ws
Group 2 Group 5 0.481.45
Group 1 Group 5 00.22
Group 0 Group 5 1.261.33
Group 5 Group 4 0.470.13
Group 3 Group 4 1.490.35
Group 0 Group 4 0.310
Group 4 Group 3 03.07
Group 2 Group 2 01.28
Group 0 Group 2 00.25
Group 4 Group 1 00.12
Group 1 Group 1 1.392.14
Group 0 Group 0 0.750.43
6.1710.82

Head-to-Head History of TEN @ IND

Day Outcome TEN Played IND Played
Sunday, September 28, 2014 24 pt W IND Behind and Awful Ahead and Well
Sunday, December 1, 2013 8 pt W IND Badly Above Avg
Sunday, December 9, 2012 4 pt W IND Average Below Avg
Sunday, December 18, 2011 14 pt W IND Badly Above Avg
Sunday, January 2, 2011 3 pt W IND Average Above Avg
Sunday, December 6, 2009 10 pt W IND Badly Well