The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans

Game will take place Sunday, January 3, 2016

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

JAC PlaysHOU Plays JAC WsHOU Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 05.92
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 1.520
Above Avg Behind and Awful 1.550.28
Ahead and Well Below Avg 1.080
Average Below Avg 1.912.79
Above Avg Below Avg 00.34
Badly Below Avg 01
Behind but Well Below Avg 0.90
Behind and Awful Above Avg 00.45
Average Above Avg 00
Behind and Awful Well 01.74
Average Well 00
Badly Well 02.8
6.9815.35

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

JAC PlaysHOU Plays JAC WsHOU Ws
Group 2 Group 5 1.41.47
Group 0 Group 5 0.160.9
Group 3 Group 4 0.980
Group 4 Group 3 02.54
Group 2 Group 3 00.1
Group 2 Group 2 01.24
Group 2 Group 1 00
Group 1 Group 1 02.15
Group 3 Group 0 00.31
Group 0 Group 0 1.260.37
3.829.12

Head-to-Head History of JAC @ HOU

Day Outcome JAC Played HOU Played
Sunday, December 28, 2014 6 pt W HOU Badly Below Avg
Sunday, November 24, 2013 7 pt W JAC Above Avg Behind and Awful
Sunday, November 18, 2012 6 pt W HOU Average Below Avg
Sunday, October 30, 2011 10 pt W HOU Behind and Awful Well
Sunday, January 2, 2011 17 pt W HOU Badly Well
Sunday, September 27, 2009 7 pt W JAC Average Below Avg