The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns

Game will take place Sunday, January 3, 2016

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

PIT PlaysCLE Plays PIT WsCLE Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 01.51
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 3.340
Above Avg Behind and Awful 1.940
Ahead and Well Below Avg 1.380
Behind and Awful Below Avg 00.67
Average Below Avg 3.390.94
Above Avg Below Avg 1.070
Behind but Well Below Avg 0.480
Average Above Avg 0.41.12
Behind and Awful Well 00.58
Average Well 0.891.18
Badly Well 03.67
Behind but Well Well 0.720.3
13.6510

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

PIT PlaysCLE Plays PIT WsCLE Ws
Group 2 Group 5 0.891.06
Group 1 Group 5 0.750.43
Group 0 Group 5 1.70.49
Group 0 Group 4 0.690
Group 3 Group 4 0.90
Group 5 Group 4 0.110
Group 4 Group 3 01.02
Group 2 Group 1 00.38
Group 1 Group 1 02.41
Group 0 Group 0 2.480
7.545.82

Head-to-Head History of PIT @ CLE

Day Outcome PIT Played CLE Played
Sunday, October 12, 2014 21 pt W CLE Behind and Awful Ahead and Well
Sunday, November 24, 2013 16 pt W PIT Ahead and Well Behind and Awful
Sunday, November 25, 2012 6 pt W CLE Behind and Awful Below Avg
Sunday, January 1, 2012 4 pt W PIT Average Below Avg
Sunday, January 2, 2011 32 pt W PIT Ahead and Well Behind and Awful
Thursday, December 10, 2009 7 pt W CLE Badly Well