The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals

Game will take place Sunday, January 3, 2016

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

BAL PlaysCIN Plays BAL WsCIN Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 03.01
Badly Ahead and Well 01.43
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 1.820
Above Avg Behind and Awful 1.50.26
Ahead and Well Below Avg 1.570
Average Below Avg 2.723.75
Behind but Well Below Avg 1.640
Average Above Avg 00.84
Badly Above Avg 00.66
Behind and Awful Well 00.97
Badly Well 04.83
Behind but Well Well 00
9.2715.77

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

BAL PlaysCIN Plays BAL WsCIN Ws
Group 5 Group 5 0.480.47
Group 2 Group 5 1.31.03
Group 1 Group 5 00.82
Group 0 Group 5 0.980.74
Group 3 Group 4 0.70
Group 4 Group 3 01.97
Group 2 Group 2 01.61
Group 0 Group 2 0.270
Group 2 Group 1 00.21
Group 1 Group 1 02.12
Group 0 Group 0 1.270.74
5.039.75

Head-to-Head History of BAL @ CIN

Day Outcome BAL Played CIN Played
Sunday, October 26, 2014 3 pt W CIN Badly Well
Sunday, December 29, 2013 17 pt W CIN Badly Ahead and Well
Sunday, December 30, 2012 6 pt W CIN Average Below Avg
Sunday, January 1, 2012 8 pt W BAL Ahead and Well Behind and Awful
Sunday, September 19, 2010 5 pt W CIN Average Below Avg
Sunday, November 8, 2009 10 pt W CIN Badly Well