The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins

Game will take place Sunday, January 3, 2016

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

NE PlaysMIA Plays NE WsMIA Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 01.35
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 5.630
Average Behind and Awful 1.071.07
Above Avg Behind and Awful 1.180.64
Ahead and Well Below Avg 2.170
Behind and Awful Below Avg 00.48
Average Below Avg 3.262.75
Behind but Well Below Avg 0.740
Average Above Avg 00.56
Behind and Awful Well 00.42
Badly Well 01.13
Behind and Awful Behind but Well 00.53
14.098.96

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

NE PlaysMIA Plays NE WsMIA Ws
Group 5 Group 5 0.280
Group 2 Group 5 1.961.75
Group 1 Group 5 00.44
Group 0 Group 5 1.160.66
Group 0 Group 4 0.570
Group 3 Group 4 1.340
Group 5 Group 4 0.880
Group 4 Group 3 01.14
Group 1 Group 2 00
Group 0 Group 2 0.40
Group 1 Group 1 00.46
Group 4 Group 0 00.46
Group 0 Group 0 2.191.27
8.816.22

Head-to-Head History of NE @ MIA

Day Outcome NE Played MIA Played
Sunday, September 7, 2014 13 pt W MIA Behind and Awful Behind but Well
Sunday, December 15, 2013 4 pt W MIA Average Below Avg
Sunday, December 2, 2012 7 pt W NE Above Avg Behind and Awful
Monday, September 12, 2011 14 pt W NE Ahead and Well Behind and Awful
Monday, October 4, 2010 27 pt W NE Ahead and Well Behind and Awful
Sunday, December 6, 2009 1 pt W MIA Above Avg Behind and Awful