The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills

Game will take place Sunday, January 3, 2016

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

NYJ PlaysBUF Plays NYJ WsBUF Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 02.16
Badly Ahead and Well 01.06
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 3.70
Average Behind and Awful 0.440.44
Above Avg Behind and Awful 1.560.25
Ahead and Well Below Avg 2.270
Average Below Avg 0.892.45
Above Avg Below Avg 00
Behind but Well Below Avg 1.640
Average Above Avg 0.370.37
Behind and Awful Well 02.59
Average Well 00.32
Badly Well 02.46
Behind but Well Well 0.290
11.212.14

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

NYJ PlaysBUF Plays NYJ WsBUF Ws
Group 5 Group 5 0.030
Group 2 Group 5 0.981.92
Group 0 Group 5 0.910.73
Group 5 Group 4 0.190
Group 3 Group 4 1.210
Group 0 Group 4 1.050.13
Group 4 Group 3 02.28
Group 2 Group 2 1.020.45
Group 1 Group 2 0.341.4
Group 0 Group 2 0.010
Group 2 Group 1 00.3
Group 1 Group 1 02.04
Group 0 Group 0 0.540
6.339.29

Head-to-Head History of NYJ @ BUF

Day Outcome NYJ Played BUF Played
Sunday, November 23, 2014 35 pt W BUF Behind and Awful Ahead and Well
Sunday, November 17, 2013 23 pt W BUF Behind and Awful Well
Sunday, December 30, 2012 19 pt W BUF Badly Ahead and Well
Sunday, November 6, 2011 16 pt W NYJ Ahead and Well Below Avg
Sunday, October 3, 2010 24 pt W NYJ Ahead and Well Behind and Awful
Thursday, December 3, 2009 6 pt W NYJ Ahead and Well Below Avg