The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Cincinnati Bengals @ Denver Broncos

Game will take place Monday, December 28, 2015

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

CIN PlaysDEN Plays CIN WsDEN Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 05.08
Badly Ahead and Well 00.71
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 3.610
Above Avg Behind and Awful 3.041.61
Ahead and Well Below Avg 1.370
Behind and Awful Below Avg 00.96
Average Below Avg 2.562.6
Above Avg Below Avg 1.370.66
Badly Below Avg 00.45
Average Above Avg 0.390
Behind and Awful Well 01.06
Average Well 0.270.57
Badly Well 02.15
12.6515.9

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

CIN PlaysDEN Plays CIN WsDEN Ws
Group 2 Group 5 1.242.43
Group 0 Group 5 1.020.39
Group 5 Group 4 0.110
Group 3 Group 4 1.840
Group 0 Group 4 0.350
Group 4 Group 3 01.96
Group 2 Group 2 0.631.15
Group 1 Group 1 02.36
Group 5 Group 0 0.310
Group 0 Group 0 2.341.48
7.889.8

Head-to-Head History of CIN @ DEN

Day Outcome CIN Played DEN Played
Sunday, September 18, 2011 2 pt W DEN Badly Well