The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Baltimore Ravens

Game will take place Sunday, December 27, 2015

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

PIT PlaysBAL Plays PIT WsBAL Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 03.79
Badly Ahead and Well 00.43
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 1.60
Above Avg Behind and Awful 2.681.14
Behind and Awful Below Avg 00.68
Average Below Avg 3.183.33
Behind but Well Below Avg 1.020.55
Average Above Avg 0.480.9
Behind and Awful Well 00.78
Average Well 1.030.95
Badly Well 03.05
Behind but Well Well 0.940.31
10.9515.98

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

PIT PlaysBAL Plays PIT WsBAL Ws
Group 2 Group 5 0.941.93
Group 1 Group 5 0.430.51
Group 0 Group 5 0.870.88
Group 3 Group 4 0.540
Group 4 Group 3 01.58
Group 1 Group 1 02.54
Group 0 Group 0 2.731.52
5.538.98

Head-to-Head History of PIT @ BAL

Day Outcome PIT Played BAL Played
Thursday, September 11, 2014 20 pt W BAL Behind and Awful Ahead and Well
Thursday, November 28, 2013 2 pt W BAL Badly Well
Sunday, December 2, 2012 3 pt W PIT Average Above Avg
Sunday, September 11, 2011 28 pt W BAL Behind and Awful Ahead and Well
Sunday, December 5, 2010 3 pt W PIT Behind but Well Well
Sunday, November 29, 2009 3 pt W BAL Average Above Avg