The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Saint Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks

Game will take place Sunday, December 27, 2015

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

STL PlaysSEA Plays STL WsSEA Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 05.3
Badly Ahead and Well 01.2
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 1.570
Above Avg Behind and Awful 0.930
Ahead and Well Below Avg 0.80
Behind and Awful Below Avg 00.8
Average Below Avg 0.793.73
Above Avg Below Avg 1.770.9
Behind and Awful Above Avg 00.76
Average Above Avg 0.730.3
Behind and Awful Well 01.64
Badly Well 02.21
Behind and Awful Behind but Well 00.71
Average Behind but Well 00.83
6.6218.43

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

STL PlaysSEA Plays STL WsSEA Ws
Group 4 Group 5 00.11
Group 2 Group 5 0.973.39
Group 0 Group 5 0.441.19
Group 3 Group 4 1.490
Group 0 Group 4 0.50.35
Group 2 Group 3 00.45
Group 4 Group 3 02.99
Group 2 Group 2 00.46
Group 2 Group 1 00.82
Group 1 Group 1 0.322.64
Group 5 Group 0 0.010.01
Group 0 Group 0 0.471.32
4.2413.78

Head-to-Head History of STL @ SEA

Day Outcome STL Played SEA Played
Sunday, December 28, 2014 14 pt W SEA Average Behind but Well
Sunday, December 29, 2013 18 pt W SEA Behind and Awful Ahead and Well
Sunday, December 30, 2012 7 pt W SEA Average Below Avg
Monday, December 12, 2011 17 pt W SEA Behind and Awful Behind but Well
Sunday, January 2, 2011 10 pt W SEA Badly Ahead and Well
Sunday, September 13, 2009 28 pt W SEA Behind and Awful Ahead and Well