The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Green Bay Packers @ Arizona Cardinals

Game will take place Sunday, December 27, 2015

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

GB PlaysARI Plays GB WsARI Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 02.11
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 3.680
Above Avg Behind and Awful 1.20
Ahead and Well Below Avg 1.980
Behind and Awful Below Avg 00.58
Average Below Avg 3.485.6
Above Avg Below Avg 1.131.38
Average Above Avg 00.65
Badly Above Avg 00.48
Average Well 00.45
Badly Well 02.28
11.4813.56

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

GB PlaysARI Plays GB WsARI Ws
Group 2 Group 5 0.952.64
Group 0 Group 5 1.761.64
Group 5 Group 4 0.340
Group 3 Group 4 1.350
Group 4 Group 3 00.84
Group 2 Group 2 0.460.14
Group 2 Group 1 0.551.28
Group 1 Group 1 01.69
Group 0 Group 0 2.250.44
7.688.7

Head-to-Head History of GB @ ARI

Day Outcome GB Played ARI Played
Sunday, January 3, 2010 26 pt W GB Ahead and Well Behind and Awful