The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Dallas Cowboys @ Buffalo Bills

Game will take place Sunday, December 27, 2015

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

DAL PlaysBUF Plays DAL WsBUF Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 01.15
Badly Ahead and Well 00.62
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 3.880
Average Behind and Awful 00.67
Above Avg Behind and Awful 1.140.29
Ahead and Well Below Avg 2.330
Average Below Avg 3.613.93
Above Avg Below Avg 1.680
Behind but Well Below Avg 00
Average Above Avg 0.231.19
Average Well 0.370.48
Badly Well 01.68
Behind but Well Well 0.460
13.7310.05

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

DAL PlaysBUF Plays DAL WsBUF Ws
Group 2 Group 5 1.392.15
Group 0 Group 5 1.282.08
Group 5 Group 4 0.60
Group 3 Group 4 1.530
Group 0 Group 4 1.240.16
Group 4 Group 3 01.43
Group 2 Group 2 00.4
Group 0 Group 2 0.130
Group 1 Group 1 1.471.3
Group 0 Group 0 1.380
9.057.54

DAL has not played at BUF since 2009