The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Chicago Bears @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Game will take place Sunday, December 27, 2015

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

CHI PlaysTB Plays CHI WsTB Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 03.15
Badly Ahead and Well 00.44
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 5.190
Average Behind and Awful 0.720.94
Above Avg Behind and Awful 1.960
Ahead and Well Below Avg 1.010
Average Below Avg 2.631.11
Above Avg Below Avg 1.361.35
Badly Below Avg 01.29
Badly Well 01.09
Behind but Well Well 1.380
14.299.4

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

CHI PlaysTB Plays CHI WsTB Ws
Group 2 Group 5 0.020.85
Group 0 Group 5 1.110.26
Group 3 Group 4 1.940.01
Group 0 Group 4 0.470
Group 2 Group 3 00.42
Group 4 Group 3 01.41
Group 4 Group 2 00.27
Group 2 Group 2 0.650.51
Group 1 Group 2 00.14
Group 1 Group 1 0.871.12
Group 0 Group 0 2.020.21
7.115.23

Head-to-Head History of CHI @ TB

Day Outcome CHI Played TB Played
Sunday, October 23, 2011 6 pt W CHI Above Avg Behind and Awful