The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons

Game will take place Sunday, December 27, 2015

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

CAR PlaysATL Plays CAR WsATL Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 03.23
Badly Ahead and Well 00.54
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 4.570
Above Avg Behind and Awful 1.160.78
Behind and Awful Below Avg 00.38
Average Below Avg 2.83.93
Above Avg Below Avg 0.590
Badly Below Avg 00.44
Average Above Avg 00.79
Behind and Awful Well 00.35
Badly Well 01.84
Behind but Well Well 0.660
Behind and Awful Behind but Well 00.4
9.812.73

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

CAR PlaysATL Plays CAR WsATL Ws
Group 2 Group 5 1.541.17
Group 1 Group 5 0.350.36
Group 0 Group 5 1.41.21
Group 3 Group 4 2.370
Group 4 Group 3 01.96
Group 1 Group 2 0.220.22
Group 2 Group 1 00
Group 1 Group 1 01.14
Group 0 Group 0 2.340.72
8.266.81

Head-to-Head History of CAR @ ATL

Day Outcome CAR Played ATL Played
Sunday, December 28, 2014 31 pt W CAR Ahead and Well Behind and Awful
Sunday, December 29, 2013 1 pt W CAR Average Below Avg
Sunday, September 30, 2012 2 pt W ATL Average Below Avg
Sunday, October 16, 2011 14 pt W ATL Behind and Awful Behind but Well
Sunday, January 2, 2011 21 pt W ATL Behind and Awful Ahead and Well
Sunday, September 20, 2009 8 pt W ATL Average Below Avg