The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

New York Giants @ Minnesota Vikings

Game will take place Sunday, December 27, 2015

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

NYG PlaysMIN Plays NYG WsMIN Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 04.27
Badly Ahead and Well 00.89
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 4.880
Average Behind and Awful 0.770.77
Above Avg Behind and Awful 1.770
Ahead and Well Below Avg 0.460
Average Below Avg 1.741.84
Above Avg Below Avg 0.771.15
Badly Below Avg 00.64
Average Above Avg 0.41.06
Behind and Awful Well 01.57
Average Well 00.86
Badly Well 02.25
10.8215.33

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

NYG PlaysMIN Plays NYG WsMIN Ws
Group 5 Group 5 00
Group 2 Group 5 0.651.6
Group 0 Group 5 1.140.85
Group 5 Group 4 0.120
Group 3 Group 4 2.120
Group 4 Group 3 01.56
Group 2 Group 2 0.170
Group 4 Group 1 00.87
Group 2 Group 1 00.66
Group 1 Group 1 02.17
Group 0 Group 0 2.991.39
7.219.13

Head-to-Head History of NYG @ MIN

Day Outcome NYG Played MIN Played
Monday, December 13, 2010 18 pt W NYG Above Avg Below Avg
Sunday, January 3, 2010 37 pt W MIN Behind and Awful Ahead and Well