The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

San Fransisco 49ers @ Detroit Lions

Game will take place Sunday, December 27, 2015

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

SF PlaysDET Plays SF WsDET Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 04.31
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 3.550
Average Behind and Awful 0.70.7
Above Avg Behind and Awful 1.180.54
Ahead and Well Below Avg 2.180
Behind and Awful Below Avg 01.05
Average Below Avg 1.632.37
Behind but Well Below Avg 0.40
Average Above Avg 00
Behind and Awful Well 01.18
Average Well 01.02
Badly Well 00.5
Behind but Well Well 1.270
10.9411.69

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

SF PlaysDET Plays SF WsDET Ws
Group 5 Group 5 0.610
Group 2 Group 5 0.971.69
Group 0 Group 5 01.07
Group 3 Group 4 1.530
Group 4 Group 3 02.15
Group 2 Group 3 00.02
Group 2 Group 2 00.33
Group 4 Group 2 00.27
Group 5 Group 2 0.410
Group 4 Group 1 00.3
Group 2 Group 1 0.090.31
Group 1 Group 1 00.57
Group 5 Group 0 0.110
Group 0 Group 0 2.121.56
5.868.31

Head-to-Head History of SF @ DET

Day Outcome SF Played DET Played
Sunday, October 16, 2011 6 pt W SF Behind but Well Below Avg