The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs

Game will take place Sunday, December 27, 2015

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

CLE PlaysKC Plays CLE WsKC Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 04.28
Badly Ahead and Well 00.71
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 2.340
Above Avg Behind and Awful 1.030
Average Below Avg 1.543.22
Above Avg Below Avg 0.750.68
Behind but Well Below Avg 0.620
Behind and Awful Well 01.02
Average Well 01.18
Badly Well 02.45
Behind but Well Well 0.640
6.9413.57

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

CLE PlaysKC Plays CLE WsKC Ws
Group 2 Group 5 0.571.21
Group 1 Group 5 00.27
Group 0 Group 5 1.091.68
Group 3 Group 4 0.760
Group 2 Group 3 00.66
Group 4 Group 3 00.99
Group 2 Group 2 0.381.28
Group 2 Group 1 00.22
Group 1 Group 1 02.52
Group 0 Group 0 0.440.01
3.268.86

Head-to-Head History of CLE @ KC

Day Outcome CLE Played KC Played
Sunday, October 27, 2013 6 pt W KC Badly Well
Sunday, December 20, 2009 7 pt W CLE Above Avg Behind and Awful