The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans

Game will take place Sunday, December 27, 2015

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

HOU PlaysTEN Plays HOU WsTEN Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 01.55
Badly Ahead and Well 01.13
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 4.710
Average Behind and Awful 00.33
Above Avg Behind and Awful 1.890
Ahead and Well Below Avg 1.920
Average Below Avg 1.692.52
Above Avg Below Avg 00
Behind but Well Below Avg 1.260.47
Behind and Awful Above Avg 00.89
Average Above Avg 0.380.36
Behind and Awful Well 00.6
Average Well 00
Badly Well 01.99
Behind but Well Well 0.940
12.839.88

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

HOU PlaysTEN Plays HOU WsTEN Ws
Group 5 Group 5 0.270
Group 4 Group 5 00.71
Group 2 Group 5 0.840.84
Group 0 Group 5 1.90.22
Group 0 Group 4 0.190
Group 3 Group 4 2.360
Group 5 Group 4 0.740
Group 4 Group 3 01.62
Group 4 Group 2 00.45
Group 2 Group 2 0.20.25
Group 1 Group 2 01.01
Group 1 Group 1 0.010.21
Group 0 Group 0 1.280.74
7.826.09

Head-to-Head History of HOU @ TEN

Day Outcome HOU Played TEN Played
Sunday, October 26, 2014 14 pt W HOU Ahead and Well Below Avg
Sunday, December 29, 2013 6 pt W TEN Average Below Avg
Sunday, December 2, 2012 14 pt W HOU Above Avg Behind and Awful
Sunday, October 23, 2011 34 pt W HOU Ahead and Well Behind and Awful
Sunday, December 19, 2010 14 pt W TEN Badly Ahead and Well
Sunday, September 20, 2009 3 pt W HOU Average Above Avg