The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

New England Patriots @ New York Jets

Game will take place Sunday, December 27, 2015

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

NE PlaysNYJ Plays NE WsNYJ Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 02.05
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 5.440
Average Behind and Awful 1.250.71
Above Avg Behind and Awful 1.240.62
Ahead and Well Below Avg 1.070
Behind and Awful Below Avg 01.29
Average Below Avg 2.462.34
Above Avg Below Avg 0.940.46
Average Above Avg 00
Behind and Awful Well 00.56
Badly Well 02.47
Average Behind but Well 00.37
12.4210.91

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

NE PlaysNYJ Plays NE WsNYJ Ws
Group 2 Group 5 1.711.35
Group 1 Group 5 00.22
Group 0 Group 5 1.381.61
Group 0 Group 4 0.470
Group 3 Group 4 1.360
Group 5 Group 4 1.190
Group 4 Group 3 00.88
Group 5 Group 2 0.20
Group 0 Group 2 0.210.21
Group 1 Group 1 01.15
Group 0 Group 0 2.040.26
8.65.71

Head-to-Head History of NE @ NYJ

Day Outcome NE Played NYJ Played
Sunday, December 21, 2014 1 pt W NE Average Below Avg
Sunday, October 20, 2013 3 pt W NYJ Average Below Avg
Thursday, November 22, 2012 30 pt W NE Ahead and Well Behind and Awful
Sunday, November 13, 2011 21 pt W NE Ahead and Well Behind and Awful
Sunday, September 19, 2010 14 pt W NYJ Average Behind but Well
Sunday, September 20, 2009 7 pt W NYJ Average Below Avg