The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Indianapolis Colts @ Miami Dolphins

Game will take place Sunday, December 27, 2015

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

IND PlaysMIA Plays IND WsMIA Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 03.78
Badly Ahead and Well 00.85
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 4.030
Average Behind and Awful 0.290.62
Above Avg Behind and Awful 2.320.52
Ahead and Well Below Avg 2.230
Behind and Awful Below Avg 00.52
Average Below Avg 4.041.96
Behind but Well Below Avg 0.350
Behind and Awful Above Avg 00.39
Average Above Avg 0.780.8
Behind and Awful Well 00.95
Average Well 0.70.7
Badly Well 0.622.79
Behind but Well Well 0.760
16.1713.93

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

IND PlaysMIA Plays IND WsMIA Ws
Group 2 Group 5 1.791.76
Group 1 Group 5 0.490.49
Group 0 Group 5 00.36
Group 5 Group 4 0.220
Group 3 Group 4 2.130
Group 0 Group 4 0.340
Group 4 Group 3 02.56
Group 4 Group 2 00.19
Group 2 Group 2 00
Group 2 Group 1 0.40.65
Group 1 Group 1 0.220.87
Group 0 Group 0 2.340.92
7.967.83

Head-to-Head History of IND @ MIA

Day Outcome IND Played MIA Played
Monday, September 21, 2009 4 pt W IND Average Above Avg