The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders

Game will take place Thursday, December 24, 2015

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

SD PlaysOAK Plays SD WsOAK Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 00.48
Badly Ahead and Well 01.53
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 6.360
Average Behind and Awful 00.34
Above Avg Behind and Awful 1.140.29
Ahead and Well Below Avg 0.940
Average Below Avg 1.321.62
Above Avg Below Avg 1.321.68
Behind but Well Below Avg 0.460
Average Above Avg 0.770
Behind and Awful Well 01.26
Badly Well 02.46
Behind but Well Well 0.770
13.129.69

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

SD PlaysOAK Plays SD WsOAK Ws
Group 2 Group 5 0.680.35
Group 1 Group 5 00.77
Group 0 Group 5 0.980.02
Group 0 Group 4 0.120.23
Group 3 Group 4 2.210
Group 5 Group 4 1.030
Group 4 Group 3 01.26
Group 2 Group 2 00.39
Group 1 Group 1 0.461.94
Group 0 Group 0 1.050.01
6.565

Head-to-Head History of SD @ OAK

Day Outcome SD Played OAK Played
Sunday, October 12, 2014 3 pt W SD Average Above Avg
Sunday, October 6, 2013 10 pt W OAK Badly Ahead and Well
Monday, September 10, 2012 8 pt W SD Above Avg Below Avg
Sunday, January 1, 2012 12 pt W SD Above Avg Behind and Awful
Sunday, October 10, 2010 8 pt W OAK Above Avg Below Avg
Monday, September 14, 2009 4 pt W SD Average Above Avg