The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints

Game will take place Monday, December 21, 2015

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

DET PlaysNO Plays DET WsNO Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 04.53
Badly Ahead and Well 01.06
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 1.760
Average Behind and Awful 0.790.57
Above Avg Behind and Awful 00.32
Ahead and Well Below Avg 0.860
Average Below Avg 2.962.56
Above Avg Below Avg 0.920.41
Badly Below Avg 00.85
Behind and Awful Well 01.2
Average Well 01.18
Badly Well 0.263.5
Behind but Well Well 1.310
8.916.21

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

DET PlaysNO Plays DET WsNO Ws
Group 2 Group 5 0.390.76
Group 1 Group 5 0.430.47
Group 0 Group 5 1.451.1
Group 3 Group 4 0.940.2
Group 2 Group 3 00.1
Group 4 Group 3 01.78
Group 4 Group 2 00.62
Group 2 Group 2 0.420.92
Group 2 Group 1 0.630.95
Group 1 Group 1 01.61
Group 0 Group 0 0.640.14
4.928.7

Head-to-Head History of DET @ NO

Day Outcome DET Played NO Played
Sunday, December 4, 2011 14 pt W NO Badly Well
Sunday, September 13, 2009 18 pt W NO Behind and Awful Ahead and Well