The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Cincinnati Bengals @ San Fransisco 49ers

Game will take place Sunday, December 20, 2015

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

CIN PlaysSF Plays CIN WsSF Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 03.22
Badly Ahead and Well 00.92
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 3.130
Above Avg Behind and Awful 1.890
Ahead and Well Below Avg 1.770
Behind and Awful Below Avg 00.7
Average Below Avg 3.183.87
Above Avg Below Avg 0.420
Behind but Well Below Avg 0.340
Behind and Awful Above Avg 00.6
Average Above Avg 0.830.44
Behind and Awful Well 01.12
Average Well 0.50.73
Badly Well 03
Behind but Well Well 0.750
12.8414.65

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

CIN PlaysSF Plays CIN WsSF Ws
Group 2 Group 5 1.792.53
Group 0 Group 5 1.440.9
Group 5 Group 4 0.320
Group 3 Group 4 1.80
Group 0 Group 4 0.670
Group 4 Group 3 01.31
Group 2 Group 2 0.770.97
Group 1 Group 1 01.96
Group 0 Group 0 1.350
8.177.7

CIN has not played at SF since 2009