The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Miami Dolphins @ San Diego Chargers

Game will take place Sunday, December 20, 2015

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

MIA PlaysSD Plays MIA WsSD Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 04.19
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 3.260
Above Avg Behind and Awful 1.510
Average Below Avg 3.233.11
Above Avg Below Avg 0.580
Badly Below Avg 00.67
Behind but Well Below Avg 1.050
Average Above Avg 00.87
Behind and Awful Well 01.27
Average Well 00.79
Badly Well 01.56
Behind but Well Well 1.20
10.8512.49

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

MIA PlaysSD Plays MIA WsSD Ws
Group 2 Group 5 0.442.1
Group 0 Group 5 0.50
Group 5 Group 4 0.550
Group 3 Group 4 3.070
Group 4 Group 3 01.79
Group 2 Group 2 1.291.06
Group 1 Group 1 0.430.75
Group 0 Group 0 0.50.71
6.826.42

Head-to-Head History of MIA @ SD

Day Outcome MIA Played SD Played
Sunday, October 2, 2011 10 pt W SD Average Well
Sunday, September 27, 2009 10 pt W SD Average Above Avg