The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Denver Broncos @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Game will take place Sunday, December 20, 2015

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

DEN PlaysPIT Plays DEN WsPIT Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 04.17
Badly Ahead and Well 01.23
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 3.030
Above Avg Behind and Awful 2.20
Ahead and Well Below Avg 0.940
Behind and Awful Below Avg 00.51
Average Below Avg 3.122.17
Above Avg Below Avg 0.490
Badly Below Avg 00.87
Behind but Well Below Avg 1.430
Average Above Avg 0.650.88
Badly Above Avg 00.81
Average Well 01.52
Badly Well 01.32
Behind but Well Well 10.31
12.8913.84

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

DEN PlaysPIT Plays DEN WsPIT Ws
Group 2 Group 5 1.610.87
Group 0 Group 5 0.070.14
Group 3 Group 4 2.210
Group 4 Group 3 01.2
Group 4 Group 2 00.84
Group 2 Group 2 0.632.23
Group 2 Group 1 0.190.29
Group 1 Group 1 01.45
Group 0 Group 0 1.430
6.167.05

DEN has not played at PIT since 2009