The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Green Bay Packers @ Oakland Raiders

Game will take place Sunday, December 20, 2015

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

GB PlaysOAK Plays GB WsOAK Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 01.09
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 6.60
Above Avg Behind and Awful 0.990.32
Ahead and Well Below Avg 2.030
Behind and Awful Below Avg 00.59
Average Below Avg 2.591.98
Above Avg Below Avg 1.161.4
Average Above Avg 00
Badly Above Avg 00.58
Behind and Awful Well 01.03
Badly Well 02.03
Behind but Well Well 1.130
14.539.06

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

GB PlaysOAK Plays GB WsOAK Ws
Group 2 Group 5 0.350.23
Group 1 Group 5 00.76
Group 0 Group 5 0.890.01
Group 0 Group 4 0.920.92
Group 3 Group 4 2.040
Group 5 Group 4 1.050
Group 4 Group 3 00.79
Group 2 Group 2 0.541.17
Group 1 Group 2 00.27
Group 1 Group 1 01.57
Group 0 Group 0 2.250.02
8.075.78

GB has not played at OAK since 2009