The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Cleveland Browns @ Seattle Seahawks

Game will take place Sunday, December 20, 2015

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

CLE PlaysSEA Plays CLE WsSEA Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 05.47
Badly Ahead and Well 00.41
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 1.250
Above Avg Behind and Awful 0.530
Behind and Awful Below Avg 01.34
Average Below Avg 1.523.78
Above Avg Below Avg 1.011
Behind but Well Below Avg 0.740
Behind and Awful Above Avg 00.56
Behind and Awful Well 01.43
Average Well 01.16
Badly Well 02.67
Above Avg Behind but Well 00.47
5.0718.32

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

CLE PlaysSEA Plays CLE WsSEA Ws
Group 2 Group 5 0.822.78
Group 1 Group 5 00
Group 0 Group 5 0.711.32
Group 3 Group 4 1.050
Group 2 Group 3 01.09
Group 4 Group 3 01.9
Group 2 Group 2 0.270.92
Group 4 Group 1 00.41
Group 2 Group 1 00.74
Group 1 Group 1 03.03
Group 0 Group 0 0.311.14
3.1813.37

CLE has not played at SEA since 2009