The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Buffalo Bills @ Washington Redskins

Game will take place Sunday, December 20, 2015

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

BUF PlaysWAS Plays BUF WsWAS Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 03.78
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 4.770
Average Behind and Awful 00
Above Avg Behind and Awful 1.770.74
Average Below Avg 2.643.66
Badly Below Avg 00.6
Behind but Well Below Avg 0.730
Average Above Avg 0.710.58
Badly Well 02.87
Behind but Well Well 0.640
Average Behind but Well 00.42
11.2912.68

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

BUF PlaysWAS Plays BUF WsWAS Ws
Group 2 Group 5 1.871.49
Group 0 Group 5 0.381.38
Group 3 Group 4 2.410.25
Group 0 Group 4 0.40.47
Group 4 Group 3 01.48
Group 2 Group 3 00
Group 2 Group 2 00
Group 1 Group 1 0.431.78
Group 0 Group 0 1.220.04
6.736.92

BUF has not played at WAS since 2009