The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Kansas City Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens

Game will take place Sunday, December 20, 2015

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

KC PlaysBAL Plays KC WsBAL Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 05.18
Badly Ahead and Well 00.67
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 30
Above Avg Behind and Awful 1.620.82
Average Below Avg 2.423.88
Behind but Well Below Avg 1.080.58
Average Above Avg 00.59
Behind and Awful Well 00.84
Average Well 00.54
Badly Well 02.38
Behind but Well Well 1.190.4
9.3315.92

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

KC PlaysBAL Plays KC WsBAL Ws
Group 2 Group 5 1.031.09
Group 1 Group 5 00.45
Group 0 Group 5 0.991.45
Group 3 Group 4 2.80
Group 4 Group 3 01.87
Group 2 Group 3 00.11
Group 2 Group 2 0.471.01
Group 1 Group 1 0.412.5
Group 0 Group 0 0.631.13
6.369.64

Head-to-Head History of KC @ BAL

Day Outcome KC Played BAL Played
Sunday, September 13, 2009 14 pt W BAL Behind and Awful Ahead and Well