The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Tennessee Titans @ New England Patriots

Game will take place Sunday, December 20, 2015

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

TEN PlaysNE Plays TEN WsNE Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 08.1
Badly Ahead and Well 00.46
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 2.110
Average Below Avg 1.922.69
Above Avg Below Avg 0.760.76
Badly Below Avg 00.93
Average Above Avg 0.31.42
Behind and Awful Well 00.39
Badly Well 02.97
Behind but Well Well 0.650.65
5.7618.41

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

TEN PlaysNE Plays TEN WsNE Ws
Group 2 Group 5 0.541.66
Group 1 Group 5 00.73
Group 0 Group 5 1.050.56
Group 5 Group 4 0.310.31
Group 0 Group 4 0.10.1
Group 4 Group 3 04.26
Group 4 Group 2 00.48
Group 2 Group 2 01.26
Group 0 Group 2 00.25
Group 1 Group 1 0.961.49
Group 0 Group 0 0.670.8
3.6611.95

Head-to-Head History of TEN @ NE

Day Outcome TEN Played NE Played
Sunday, October 18, 2009 59 pt W NE Behind and Awful Ahead and Well