The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts

Game will take place Sunday, December 20, 2015

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

HOU PlaysIND Plays HOU WsIND Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 02.58
Badly Ahead and Well 01.38
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 3.110
Average Behind and Awful 00
Above Avg Behind and Awful 1.941.1
Ahead and Well Below Avg 1.560
Average Below Avg 1.242.09
Above Avg Below Avg 00.35
Badly Below Avg 00.77
Behind but Well Below Avg 0.821.04
Behind and Awful Above Avg 00.68
Average Above Avg 0.220.84
Behind and Awful Well 01.35
Average Well 01.46
Badly Well 02.68
Behind but Well Well 0.90
9.8216.37

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

HOU PlaysIND Plays HOU WsIND Ws
Group 5 Group 5 0.010
Group 2 Group 5 0.751.73
Group 1 Group 5 0.290.31
Group 0 Group 5 0.90.62
Group 5 Group 4 0.630.17
Group 3 Group 4 1.60.38
Group 0 Group 4 0.390
Group 4 Group 3 02.64
Group 2 Group 2 0.20.97
Group 1 Group 2 00.92
Group 4 Group 1 00.01
Group 2 Group 1 0.240
Group 1 Group 1 0.051.8
Group 0 Group 0 1.70.65
6.8110.25

Head-to-Head History of HOU @ IND

Day Outcome HOU Played IND Played
Sunday, December 14, 2014 7 pt W IND Average Well
Sunday, December 15, 2013 22 pt W IND Behind and Awful Ahead and Well
Sunday, December 30, 2012 12 pt W IND Behind and Awful Well
Thursday, December 22, 2011 3 pt W IND Above Avg Behind and Awful
Monday, November 1, 2010 13 pt W IND Behind and Awful Well
Sunday, November 8, 2009 3 pt W IND Behind but Well Below Avg