The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Atlanta Falcons @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Game will take place Sunday, December 20, 2015

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

ATL PlaysJAC Plays ATL WsJAC Ws
Badly Ahead and Well 00.76
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 5.050
Average Behind and Awful 0.40.72
Above Avg Behind and Awful 0.990.31
Ahead and Well Below Avg 1.690
Average Below Avg 3.63.81
Above Avg Below Avg 0.470
Badly Below Avg 00.84
Average Above Avg 1.541.3
Badly Well 02.68
13.7710.46

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

ATL PlaysJAC Plays ATL WsJAC Ws
Group 2 Group 5 1.22.5
Group 1 Group 5 00.01
Group 0 Group 5 1.840.89
Group 0 Group 4 0.370
Group 3 Group 4 1.980
Group 5 Group 4 0.840.31
Group 4 Group 3 00.49
Group 2 Group 2 0.660.66
Group 1 Group 1 0.180.82
Group 0 Group 0 0.950.02
8.065.72

ATL has not played at JAC since 2009