The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings

Game will take place Sunday, December 20, 2015

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

CHI PlaysMIN Plays CHI WsMIN Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 03.63
Badly Ahead and Well 00.92
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 4.960
Average Behind and Awful 0.451.01
Above Avg Behind and Awful 0.850
Ahead and Well Below Avg 0.440
Average Below Avg 2.152.32
Above Avg Below Avg 1.451.83
Badly Below Avg 00.7
Average Above Avg 0.570.57
Behind and Awful Well 01.61
Average Well 00.79
Badly Well 02.01
Behind but Well Well 1.210
12.1115.45

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

CHI PlaysMIN Plays CHI WsMIN Ws
Group 5 Group 5 0.20
Group 2 Group 5 0.011.33
Group 0 Group 5 1.131.6
Group 5 Group 4 0.530
Group 3 Group 4 1.90
Group 1 Group 3 00.23
Group 4 Group 3 01.19
Group 2 Group 2 0.330
Group 1 Group 1 1.742.22
Group 0 Group 0 2.621.55
8.518.15

Head-to-Head History of CHI @ MIN

Day Outcome CHI Played MIN Played
Sunday, December 28, 2014 4 pt W MIN Average Below Avg
Sunday, December 1, 2013 3 pt W MIN Average Behind and Awful
Sunday, December 9, 2012 7 pt W MIN Badly Below Avg
Sunday, January 1, 2012 4 pt W CHI Average Below Avg
Monday, December 20, 2010 26 pt W CHI Ahead and Well Behind and Awful
Sunday, November 29, 2009 26 pt W MIN Behind and Awful Ahead and Well