The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Arizona Cardinals @ Philadelphia Eagles

Game will take place Sunday, December 20, 2015

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

ARI PlaysPHI Plays ARI WsPHI Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 04.26
Badly Ahead and Well 00.81
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 2.90
Average Behind and Awful 0.670.62
Above Avg Behind and Awful 1.340
Ahead and Well Below Avg 2.820
Average Below Avg 1.661.6
Above Avg Below Avg 1.380.28
Average Above Avg 0.910.45
Behind and Awful Well 01.39
Badly Well 02.23
Behind but Well Well 0.440
Average Behind but Well 00.46
12.1712.14

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

ARI PlaysPHI Plays ARI WsPHI Ws
Group 5 Group 5 0.280.28
Group 2 Group 5 1.081.27
Group 0 Group 5 1.850
Group 5 Group 4 0.560
Group 3 Group 4 1.490
Group 4 Group 3 01.94
Group 0 Group 2 00.59
Group 2 Group 2 00.01
Group 2 Group 1 0.650.52
Group 1 Group 1 01.18
Group 5 Group 0 0.760
Group 0 Group 0 0.660.03
7.355.85

Head-to-Head History of ARI @ PHI

Day Outcome ARI Played PHI Played
Sunday, December 1, 2013 3 pt W PHI Badly Well
Sunday, November 13, 2011 4 pt W ARI Average Above Avg