The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants

Game will take place Sunday, December 20, 2015

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

CAR PlaysNYG Plays CAR WsNYG Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 02.79
Badly Ahead and Well 00.95
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 4.970
Above Avg Behind and Awful 0.920
Behind and Awful Below Avg 00.41
Average Below Avg 2.983.48
Above Avg Below Avg 0.590.81
Badly Below Avg 00.37
Behind but Well Below Avg 0.770
Behind and Awful Above Avg 00.6
Behind and Awful Well 00.62
Badly Well 01.11
Behind but Well Well 0.710.62
10.9711.8

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

CAR PlaysNYG Plays CAR WsNYG Ws
Group 5 Group 5 0.290
Group 2 Group 5 1.840.85
Group 1 Group 5 0.350.35
Group 0 Group 5 1.10
Group 3 Group 4 2.680.71
Group 2 Group 3 00.29
Group 4 Group 3 01.59
Group 2 Group 2 00.46
Group 1 Group 2 0.550.55
Group 2 Group 1 00.83
Group 1 Group 1 00.69
Group 0 Group 0 1.440.74
8.287.11

Head-to-Head History of CAR @ NYG

Day Outcome CAR Played NYG Played
Sunday, September 12, 2010 13 pt W NYG Badly Below Avg
Sunday, December 27, 2009 32 pt W CAR Ahead and Well Behind and Awful