The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

New York Jets @ Dallas Cowboys

Game will take place Saturday, December 19, 2015

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

NYJ PlaysDAL Plays NYJ WsDAL Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 03.63
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 3.090
Average Behind and Awful 0.460
Above Avg Behind and Awful 1.760.4
Ahead and Well Below Avg 1.750
Average Below Avg 1.292.45
Above Avg Below Avg 00.33
Behind but Well Below Avg 1.560
Behind and Awful Above Avg 01.22
Average Above Avg 1.131.13
Badly Well 01.57
Behind but Well Well 0.470
11.5410.76

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

NYJ PlaysDAL Plays NYJ WsDAL Ws
Group 5 Group 5 0.710.5
Group 2 Group 5 1.651.7
Group 1 Group 5 01.04
Group 0 Group 5 0.740.35
Group 0 Group 4 0.410
Group 3 Group 4 1.420
Group 5 Group 4 0.650
Group 4 Group 3 02.09
Group 2 Group 2 0.50.62
Group 0 Group 2 0.010
Group 2 Group 1 00
Group 1 Group 1 01.7
Group 0 Group 0 0.50.69
6.638.73

NYJ has not played at DAL since 2009