The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Saint Louis Rams

Game will take place Thursday, December 17, 2015

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

TB PlaysSTL Plays TB WsSTL Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 04.08
Badly Ahead and Well 01.13
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 5.430
Average Behind and Awful 0.30.91
Above Avg Behind and Awful 00.33
Ahead and Well Below Avg 1.580
Average Below Avg 1.540.99
Above Avg Below Avg 0.690
Behind and Awful Well 00.69
Badly Well 02.65
9.5510.81

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

TB PlaysSTL Plays TB WsSTL Ws
Group 2 Group 5 0.411.07
Group 1 Group 5 00.71
Group 0 Group 5 0.750.38
Group 5 Group 4 10
Group 3 Group 4 1.780
Group 1 Group 3 00.45
Group 4 Group 3 01.43
Group 2 Group 2 01.41
Group 1 Group 2 00.01
Group 2 Group 1 00.19
Group 1 Group 1 0.021.61
Group 0 Group 0 1.830.57
5.817.87

Head-to-Head History of TB @ STL

Day Outcome TB Played STL Played
Sunday, December 22, 2013 10 pt W STL Behind and Awful Ahead and Well