The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

New York Giants @ Miami Dolphins

Game will take place Monday, December 14, 2015

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

NYG PlaysMIA Plays NYG WsMIA Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 04
Badly Ahead and Well 00.82
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 4.010
Average Behind and Awful 0.460.46
Above Avg Behind and Awful 2.390.54
Ahead and Well Below Avg 2.010
Average Below Avg 2.542.49
Behind but Well Below Avg 0.590
Behind and Awful Above Avg 00.67
Average Above Avg 0.470.86
Behind and Awful Well 00.59
Average Well 00.49
Badly Well 01.28
Behind and Awful Behind but Well 00.56
12.5112.79

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

NYG PlaysMIA Plays NYG WsMIA Ws
Group 5 Group 5 00
Group 2 Group 5 0.891.55
Group 1 Group 5 00.84
Group 0 Group 5 1.390.44
Group 0 Group 4 0.550
Group 3 Group 4 1.680
Group 5 Group 4 0.110
Group 4 Group 3 02.23
Group 2 Group 2 0.090
Group 2 Group 1 00.72
Group 1 Group 1 00.97
Group 0 Group 0 2.070.81
6.827.59

NYG has not played at MIA since 2009