The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos

Game will take place Sunday, December 13, 2015

Our model believes that the Broncos are most likely to win this game.

OAK Money Line

+225
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$225
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
30.76%

DEN Money Line

-245
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$140.81
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
71.01%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

OAK PlaysDEN Plays OAK WsDEN Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 06.24
Badly Ahead and Well 00.98
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 2.510
Above Avg Behind and Awful 3.061.47
Ahead and Well Below Avg 1.070
Behind and Awful Below Avg 00.97
Average Below Avg 0.582
Above Avg Below Avg 0.570.86
Badly Below Avg 00.94
Average Above Avg 00
Average Well 00.84
Badly Well 02.64
7.8216.98

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

OAK PlaysDEN Plays OAK WsDEN Ws
Group 2 Group 5 0.112.8
Group 0 Group 5 0.810.3
Group 5 Group 4 0.010
Group 3 Group 4 0.850
Group 0 Group 4 00
Group 4 Group 3 03.11
Group 2 Group 2 00.91
Group 2 Group 1 00.43
Group 1 Group 1 02.02
Group 0 Group 0 1.941.23
3.7410.83

Head-to-Head History of OAK @ DEN

Day Outcome OAK Played DEN Played
Sunday, December 28, 2014 33 pt W DEN Behind and Awful Ahead and Well
Monday, September 23, 2013 16 pt W DEN Behind and Awful Ahead and Well
Sunday, September 30, 2012 31 pt W DEN Behind and Awful Ahead and Well
Monday, September 12, 2011 3 pt W OAK Ahead and Well Below Avg
Sunday, October 24, 2010 45 pt W OAK Ahead and Well Behind and Awful
Sunday, December 20, 2009 1 pt W OAK Average Below Avg