The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

San Fransisco 49ers @ Cleveland Browns

Game will take place Sunday, December 13, 2015

Our model believes that the 49ers are most likely to win this game.

SF Money Line

+115
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$114.99
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
46.51%

CLE Money Line

-125
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$180
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
55.55%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

SF PlaysCLE Plays SF WsCLE Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 03.37
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 5.060
Average Behind and Awful 1.270.26
Above Avg Behind and Awful 0.960
Ahead and Well Below Avg 2.760
Behind and Awful Below Avg 01.04
Average Below Avg 1.260.94
Behind but Well Below Avg 0.460
Average Above Avg 00.66
Behind and Awful Well 00.79
Average Well 00.56
Badly Well 01.85
Behind but Well Well 0.730.3
12.539.81

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

SF PlaysCLE Plays SF WsCLE Ws
Group 2 Group 5 1.170.75
Group 1 Group 5 00.4
Group 0 Group 5 00.45
Group 3 Group 4 1.890
Group 4 Group 3 01.89
Group 2 Group 2 00.57
Group 4 Group 1 00.21
Group 2 Group 1 0.110.39
Group 1 Group 1 00.93
Group 0 Group 0 3.090
6.285.63

SF has not played at CLE since 2009