The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

Detroit Lions @ Saint Louis Rams

Game will take place Sunday, December 13, 2015

Our model believes that the Rams are most likely to win this game.

DET Money Line

-170
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$158.82
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
62.96%

STL Money Line

+160
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$160
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
38.46%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

DET PlaysSTL Plays DET WsSTL Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 03.21
Badly Ahead and Well 01.16
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 4.450
Average Behind and Awful 0.641.18
Above Avg Behind and Awful 00.31
Ahead and Well Below Avg 1.640
Average Below Avg 2.560.9
Above Avg Below Avg 0.940
Badly Below Avg 00.54
Behind and Awful Well 00.94
Badly Well 0.33.98
10.5612.24

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

DET PlaysSTL Plays DET WsSTL Ws
Group 2 Group 5 0.390.9
Group 1 Group 5 0.540.58
Group 0 Group 5 1.290.45
Group 3 Group 4 1.860
Group 4 Group 3 01.55
Group 2 Group 2 0.220.69
Group 2 Group 1 0.490.74
Group 1 Group 1 02.45
Group 0 Group 0 0.730.45
5.557.84

DET has not played at STL since 2009