The Konosa pro football pick system (version 1.0.0)

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Game will take place Sunday, December 13, 2015

Our model believes that the Saints are most likely to win this game.

NO Money Line

+190
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$190
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
34.48%

TB Money Line

-210
Est. Payout on $100 bet:
$147.61
Odds Based Upon Moneyline:
67.74%

Model 1 Predictions

Model 1 is a more static model than Model 3. While it does a better job of decribing the actual expected performance of each team, it is generally less predictive than Model 3. A gap between the Model 1 and Model 3 predicted wins for a team should be viewed as a sign that the team in question is undergoing significant improvement or decline.

NO PlaysTB Plays NO WsTB Ws
Behind and Awful Ahead and Well 02.32
Ahead and Well Behind and Awful 4.530
Above Avg Behind and Awful 2.590
Ahead and Well Below Avg 1.650
Average Below Avg 2.520.95
Above Avg Below Avg 1.711.13
Badly Below Avg 01.49
Badly Well 02.28
Behind but Well Well 1.070
14.18.18

Model 3 Predictions

Model 3 is an evolutionary model, and the groupings will change on a week-to-week basis. In general, Model 3 is more highly highly predictive than Model 1.

NO PlaysTB Plays NO WsTB Ws
Group 2 Group 5 0.251.04
Group 0 Group 5 1.050.18
Group 3 Group 4 2.180.01
Group 0 Group 4 1.110
Group 2 Group 3 00.41
Group 4 Group 3 01.98
Group 2 Group 2 0.030.41
Group 1 Group 2 0.580.18
Group 2 Group 1 00
Group 1 Group 1 00.7
Group 0 Group 0 0.730.17
5.975.13

Head-to-Head History of NO @ TB

Day Outcome NO Played TB Played
Sunday, December 28, 2014 3 pt W NO Behind but Well Well
Sunday, September 15, 2013 2 pt W NO Above Avg Below Avg
Sunday, October 21, 2012 7 pt W NO Average Below Avg
Sunday, October 16, 2011 6 pt W TB Badly Below Avg
Sunday, October 17, 2010 25 pt W NO Ahead and Well Behind and Awful
Sunday, November 22, 2009 31 pt W NO Ahead and Well Behind and Awful